منابع مشابه
Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics
Over the last years, an intensive worldwide effort is speeding up the developments in the establishment of a global surveillance network for combating pandemics of emergent and re-emergent infectious diseases. Scientists from different fields extending from medicine and molecular biology to computer science and applied mathematics have teamed up for rapid assessment of potentially urgent situat...
متن کاملModeling the Dynamics of Infectious Diseases
Infectious diseases continue to have a major impact on individuals, populations, and the economy, even though some of them have been eradicated (e.g. small pox). Unlike many other ecological systems, many infectious diseases are well documented by spatio-temporal data sets of occurrence and impact. In addition, in particular for childhood diseases, the dynamics of the disease in a single indivi...
متن کاملEvaluating Modeling Approaches that Forecast Infectious Disease Dynamics and Predict Disease Risks
Introduction Many recent studies that have formulated models to forecast infectious disease dynamics and predict disease risks have differed according to four themes: How the data were obtained, how the parameters were derived, type of model used, and what was forecast. Some studies have attempted to collect data near-real time via use of Geographic Information System (GIS) software (Colizza, B...
متن کاملCapturing escape in infectious disease dynamics.
Identifying the causes of interannual variability in disease dynamics is important for understanding and managing epidemics. Traditionally, these causes have been classified as intrinsic (e.g. immunity fluctuations) or extrinsic (e.g. climate forcing); ecologists determine the relative contributions of these factors by applying statistical models to time series of cases. Here we address the pro...
متن کاملChoices, beliefs, and infectious disease dynamics.
A dynamic model of risky behavior in the midst of an epidemic is discussed. The key result is that pessimistic expectations over the future of the epidemic induce more current risky behavior. Numerical simulation of equilibrium epidemics shows that this effect can accelerate spread of the disease in an epidemic's early stages and that the effect of policy interventions, such as preventative vac...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Science
سال: 2020
ISSN: 0036-8075,1095-9203
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb5659